Inventory transfer:LME's “short trap” neCOMEX's “premium bubble” LME mhangura masheya adzikira kusvika pa138,000 matani, nepakati kubva pakutanga kwegore. Pamusoro, iyi ndiyo ironclad humbowo hwekuomerwa. Asi kuseri kweiyo data, transatlantic "inventory migration" iri kuitika: COMEX masheya emhangura akakwira ne90% mumwedzi miviri, nepo LME masheya achiramba achibuda. Izvi zvinoburitsa chokwadi chakakosha - musika uri kugadzira kushomeka kwedunhu. Vatengesi vakatamisa mhangura kubva kumatura eLME kuenda kuUnited States nekuda kwehutongi hwaTrump hwakaomarara pamitengo yesimbi. Ikozvino premium yeCOMEX copper remangwana kuLME mhangura yakakwira semadhora zviuru gumi nezvitatu nemazana matatu patani. Musiyano wemutengo wakanyanya uyu ndiwo chibereko che "tariff arbitrage": vanofungidzira vanobheja kuti United States inogona kubhadharisa mutero wemhangura inotengeswa kunze kwenyika mune ramangwana, uye ngarava simbi kuenda kuUnited States pachine nguva kuvhara mubhadharo. Kuvhiya uku kwakangofanana nechiitiko che "Tsingshan Nickel" muna 2021. Panguva iyoyo, LME nickel stocks yainyanya kunyorwa uye yakatumirwa kumatura ekuAsia, zvichikonzera zvakananga kupfupika kwe epic. Nhasi, chikamu cheLME chakadzimwa marisiti ichiri chakakwira kusvika 43%, zvinoreva kuti mhangura yakawanda iri kuburitswa kubva mudura. Kana mhangura iyi ichingoyerera ichipinda mudura reCOMEX, iyo inonzi "shomeka yekugovera" inodonha ipapo ipapo.
Kutya kwepolicy: Ko "tariff stick" yaTrump inokanganisa sei musika?
Danho raVaTrump rekukwidza mitero yealuminium nesimbi kusvika pa50% rave fuse yakonzera kuvhunduka kwemitengo yemhangura. Kunyange zvazvo mhangura isati yabatanidzwa mumutsara wemitero, musika watanga "kudzokorora" mamiriro ezvinhu akaipisisa. Kutya kutenga maitiro aya kwaita kuti mutemo uyu uve chiporofita chekuzvizadzisa. Kupokana kwakadzama ndekwekuti United States haingokwanise kutenga mutengo wekukanganisa kutengwa kwemhangura. Semumwe wevatengi vakuru vemhangura pasi rose, United States inoda kuunza kunze kwenyika matani 3 miriyoni emhangura yakacheneswa gore rega rega, ukuwo kugadzirwa kwayo mudzimba kuchingori miriyoni imwe chete yematani. Kana mitero ikatemerwa pamhangura, maindasitiri epasi semota nemagetsi anozobhadhara mari yacho. Uyu mutemo wekuti "kuzvipfura mutsoka" ingori chibvumirano chemitambo yezvematongerwo enyika, asi inodudzirwa nemusika sechinhu chisina kunaka.
Kuvhiringwa kwekutenga: Kumiswa kwekugadzirwa kwezvinhu muDemocratic Republic of Congo i "black swan" kana kuti "paper tiger"?
Kumbomira kwenguva pfupi kugadzirwa pamugodhi wendarira weKakula kuDemocratic Republic of the Congo kwakawedzerwa nemabhuru semuenzaniso wedambudziko rekushaikwa kwezvinhu. Zvakadaro, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti mugodhi uyu wakabuda muna 2023 uchaita 0.6% chete yepasi rose, uye Ivanhoe Mines yakazivisa kuti ichatangazve kugadzira mwedzi uno. Kuenzaniswa nezviitiko zvakangoerekana zvaitika, izvo zvakanyanya kufanirwa kusvinura ndeyekureba kwekupa bhodhoro: yepasi rose mhangura giredhi inoramba ichiderera, uye kutenderera kutenderera kwemapurojekiti matsva kwakareba se7-10 makore. Iyi ndiyo yepakati- uye yenguva refu pfungwa inotsigira mitengo yemhangura. Zvisinei, misika yemazuva ano yakawira mukusawirirana pakati pe "fungidziro yenguva pfupi" uye "kukosha kwenguva refu". Mari yekufungidzira inoshandisa chero kuvhiringa-kudivi kukonzeresa kuvhunduka, asi furatira kiyi yakakosha-yakavanzika yeChina yakavanzika. Zvinoenderana nefungidziro yeCRU, nzvimbo yeChina yakasungwa uye isina kurongeka chiteshi chetauro inogona kudarika miriyoni matani, uye chikamu ichi che "undercurrent" chinogona kuita "vhavhavhavha" yekudzikamisa mitengo chero nguva.
Mitengo yemhangura: kufamba tambo yakamanikana pakati pepfupi kusvina uye kudonha
Nehunyanzvi, mushure mekunge mitengo yemhangura yapaza nepakati akakosha ekupikisa mazinga, vanoisa mari senge CTA mari vakamhanyisa kupinda kwavo, vachigadzira yakanaka mhinduro loop ye "kusimuka-kupfupi kumira-kuwedzera kusimuka". Nekudaro, kusimuka uku kunoenderana nekutengesa kwekukurumidza kunowanzo guma mu "V-yakaita kudzoreredza". Kana tarisiro yemitero yatadza kana mutambo wekutamisa zvinhu uchipera, mitengo yemhangura inogona kutarisana nekugadziriswa kwakasimba. Kune indasitiri, yazvino yakakwira premium nharaunda iri kukanganisa maitiro emitengo: iyo LME spot discount kusvika Kurume mhangura yakawedzera, ichiratidza kushomeka kwekutenga kwemuviri; nepo musika weCOMEX uchitongwa nemari yekufungidzira, uye mitengo yakakanganiswa zvakanyanya. Iyi musika yakakamurwa chimiro inozopedzisira yabhadharwa nevatengi vekupedzisira-ese maindasitiri anovimba nemhangura, kubva kumotokari dzemagetsi kuenda kunzvimbo dzedata, achave ari pasi pekumanikidzwa kwemutengo.
Pfupiso: Chenjerera "metal carnival" pasina kupihwa uye kuda rutsigiro
Pakati pemafaro emitengo yemhangura ichityora mucherechedzo wetrillion-dollar, isu tinofanirwa kufunga zvakadzikama: kana kuwedzera kwemitengo kwarambwa kubva pakuda chaiko uye kana mitambo yezvekuverenga ichitsiva pfungwa dzeindasitiri, rudzi urwu rwe "budiriro" rinofanirwa kuve shongwe yakavakirwa pajecha. Mutero waVaTrump unogona kukwirisa mitengo yenguva pfupi, asi chinonyatso tarisa mafambiro emitengo yemhangura ichiri kunetsa kweindasitiri yekugadzira yepasi rose. Mumutambo uyu pakati pemari nemasangano, zvakakosha kuti ugare wakadzikama pane kudzingirira mabhuru.
Nguva yekutumira: Jun-07-2025