Abstract:Kubva pakutanga kwezana ramakore idzva, nekuenderera mberi kwekuenderera mberi kweiyo nickel indasitiri yemidziyo tekinoroji uye kukurumidza kusimudzira indasitiri yemagetsi, maitiro epasi rose nickel indasitiri yachinja zvikuru, uye mabhizinesi anotsigirwa neChina akaita basa rakakosha mukusimudzira shanduko yepasi rose nickel indasitiri muenzaniso. Panguva imwecheteyo, yakaitawo mipiro yakatanhamara kune chengetedzo yepasi rose nickel supply chain.
Remekedza Musika uye Remekedza Musika--Maitiro Ekuvandudza Kuchengetedzwa kweChina Nickel Supply Chain kubva ku "Nickel Futures Incident"
Kubva kutanga kwezana ramakore idzva, nekuenderera mberi kwekuenderera mberi kweiyo nickel indasitiri yemidziyo tekinoroji uye kukurumidza kusimudzira indasitiri yemagetsi, maitiro epasi rose nickel indasitiri yachinja zvikuru, uye mabhizinesi anotsigirwa neChina akaita basa rakakosha mukusimudzira shanduko yepasi rose nickel indasitiri muenzaniso. Panguva imwecheteyo, yakaitawo mipiro yakatanhamara kune chengetedzo yepasi rose nickel supply chain. Asi mutengo weLondon nickel ramangwana muna Kurume gore rino wakakwira neasina kumboitika 248% mumazuva maviri, zvichikonzera kukanganisa kwakanyanya kumakambani chaiwo anosanganisira China. Kuti izvi zviitike, kubva pakuchinja kwemaitiro eindasitiri yenickel mumakore achangopfuura, yakasanganiswa ne "nickel ramangwana chiitiko", munyori anotaura nezve nzira yekuvandudza chengetedzo yeChina nickel supply chain.
Shanduko mune yepasi rose nickel indasitiri pateni
Panyaya yechiyero chekushandisa, kushandiswa kwe nickel kwawedzera nekukurumidza, uye China ndiyo inonyanya kubatsira mukushandiswa kwepasi rose nickel. Zvinoenderana nehuwandu hweNickel Indasitiri Bazi reChina Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, muna 2021, kushandiswa kwepasi rose nickel kuchasvika 2.76 miriyoni matani, gore negore kuwedzera kwe15.9% uye 1,5 nguva yekudyiwa muna 2001. Pakati pavo, muna 2021, kushandiswa kweChina kunosvika miriyoni ne2. kuwedzera kwe14%, 18 nguva yekudyiwa muna 2001, uye chikamu chekushandiswa kwepasi rose chakawedzera kubva ku4.5% muna 2001 kusvika kune ikozvino 56%. Zvinogona kutaurwa kuti 90% yekuwedzera kwepasi rose nickel kushandiswa kubva pakutanga kwezana ramakore idzva yakabva kuChina.
Kubva pakuona kwemaitiro ekushandisa, kushandiswa kwesimbi isina tsvina kwakanyatsogadzikana, uye chikamu chenickel chinoshandiswa mumunda webhatiri chinoramba chichiwedzera. Mumakore maviri apfuura, chikamu chitsva chesimba chiri kutungamira kukura kwepasi rose primary nickel kushandiswa. Maererano nenhamba, muna 2001, muChina chekushandisa nickel chimiro, nickel yesimbi isina tsvina yaisvika 70%, nickel ye electroplating inosvika 15%, uye nickel yemabhatiri yaitora 5%. Pakazosvika 2021, chikamu chenickel inoshandiswa musimbi isina tsvina muChina nickel inoshandiswa inenge 74%; chikamu che nickel inoshandiswa mumabhatiri chichakwira kusvika ku15%; chikamu chenickel inoshandiswa mu electroplating chichadonha kusvika pa5%. Izvo hazvina kumboonekwa kuti sezvo indasitiri yemagetsi matsva inopinda munzira inokurumidza, kudiwa kwe nickel kuchawedzera, uye chikamu chemabhatiri muchimiro chekushandisa chichawedzera kuwedzera.
Kubva pakuona kwemaitiro ekugovera ezvigadzirwa, nickel mbishi zvinhu zvakashandurwa kubva nickel sulfide ore kunyanya kuita laterite nickel ore uye nickel sulfide ore inodzorwa pamwe chete. Yaimbove nickel zviwanikwa zvaive zvakanyanya nickel sulfide ore ine zviwanikwa zvepasirese zvakanyanya, uye nickel sulfide zviwanikwa zvaive zvakanyanya kuAustralia, Canada, Russia, China nedzimwe nyika, zvichiverengera inopfuura 50% yehuwandu hwepasi rose nickel reserves panguva iyoyo. Kubva pakutanga kwezana ramakore idzva, nekushandiswa uye kusimudzirwa kweiyo laterite nickel ore-nickel-iron tekinoroji muChina, laterite nickel ore muIndonesia nePhilippines yakagadziridzwa uye inoshandiswa pamwero mukuru. Muna 2021, Indonesia ichave inogadzira nickel hombe pasi rose, zvinova mhedzisiro yekubatanidzwa kweChinese tekinoroji, capital uye Indonesian zviwanikwa. Kudyidzana pakati peChina neIndonesia kwakapa zvakakosha mukubudirira uye kugadzikana kwepasi rose nickel supply chain.
Kubva pamaonero ekugadzirwa kwechigadzirwa, nickel zvigadzirwa mumunda wekutenderera zviri kusimukira kuenda kumhando dzakasiyana. Maererano nehuwandu hweNickel Industry Branch, mu2001, mukugadzirwa kwepasi rose nickel, yakanatswa nickel yakaverengera nzvimbo huru, uyezve, chikamu chiduku chaiva nickel ferronickel uye nickel munyu; pakazosvika 2021, mukugadzirwa kwepasi rose nickel, kugadzirwa kwakanatswa nickel kwakadzikira kusvika ku33%, nepo chikamu cheNPI (nickel pig iron) chine nickel-ine kugadzirwa chakakwira kusvika ku50%, uye yechinyakare nickel-iron uye nickel munyu yakaverengerwa 17%. Zvinotarisirwa kuti panosvika 2025, chikamu chekunatswa nickel mukugadzirwa kwepasi rose nickel kuchawedzera kuderera. Pamusoro pezvo, kubva pakuona kweChina chekutanga nickel chigadzirwa chimiro, ingangoita 63% yezvigadzirwa iNPI (nickel pig iron), ingangoita 25% yezvigadzirwa zvakanatswa nickel, uye ingangoita 12% yezvigadzirwa nickel munyu.
Kubva pamaonero ekuchinja kwemakambani emusika, mabhizinesi akazvimiririra ave simba guru mukugovera nickel muChina uye kunyangwe pasirese. Zvinoenderana nehuwandu kubva kuNickel Indasitiri Bazi, pakati pe677,000 matani ekutanga nickel yakabuda muChina muna 2021, mabhizinesi mashanu epamusoro akazvimirira, anosanganisira Shandong Xinhai, Qingshan Indasitiri, Delong Nickel, Tangshan Kaiyuan, Suqian Xiangxiang, uye Guangxi Yinyi, akagadzira nickel yekutanga. dzakasvika 62.8%. Kunyanya maererano nekumisikidzwa kwemaindasitiri ekunze, mabhizinesi akazvimirira anodarika makumi manomwe neshanu muzana emabhizinesi ekudyara mhiri kwemakungwa, uye yakazara maindasitiri cheni yelateite nickel mugodhi kugadzirwa-nickel-iron-stainless simbi yakagadzirwa muIndonesia.
Iyo "nickel ramangwana chiitiko" ine zvakakosha pamusika
Mamiriro nematambudziko akafumurwa
Kutanga, mutengo weLME nickel ramangwana wakasimuka nechisimba kubva munaKurume 7 kusvika 8, nekuwedzera kwe248% mumazuva maviri, izvo zvakakonzera kumiswa kwemusika wemangwana weLME uye kuenderera mberi nekudonha kweShanghai nickel paShanghai Futures Exchange. Mutengo weramangwana haungorasikirwe nekukosha kwekutungamira pamutengo wenzvimbo, asi zvakare unogadzira zvipingamupinyi uye kuomerwa kwemabhizinesi kutenga zvigadzirwa uye hedging. Izvo zvakare zvinokanganisa kugadzirwa kwakajairika uye kushanda kwe nickel kumusoro uye zasi kwerwizi, zvichikonzera kukuvadza kwakakomba kune nickel yepasi rose uye ine hukama kumusoro nekudzika.
Chechipiri ndechekuti "nickel remangwana chiitiko" mhedzisiro yekushaikwa kwekuziva kwekambani yekudzora njodzi, kushomeka kwekambani kushamiswa kwemusika wemangwana wemari, kusakwana kwekugadzirisa njodzi kwemusika weLME remangwana, uye kukwidziridzwa kwegeopolitical mutations. Zvisinei, kubva pakuona kwezvinhu zvemukati, chiitiko ichi chakafumura dambudziko iro ikozvino kumadokero misika yemangwana iri kure nekugadzirwa uye kushandiswa kwenzvimbo, haigoni kuzadzisa zvinodiwa zvemabhizimisi chaiwo, uye kukurudzirwa kwezvitsva zve nickel ramangwana hazvina kuenderera mberi nekuvandudzwa uye kuchinja kwemhizha. Parizvino, hupfumi hwakasimukira hwakaita sekuMadokero havasi vatengi vakakura vesimbi dzisina ferrous kana vagadziri vakuru. Kunyangwe marongerwo ekuchengetera zvinhu ari pasi rese, nzvimbo zhinji dzekuchengetera zviteshi uye makambani ekuchengetera zvinhu anodzorwa nevatengesi vekare vekuEurope. Panguva imwecheteyo, nekuda kwekushaikwa kwenzira dzinoshanda dzekudzora njodzi, Kune njodzi dzakavanzika kana makambani emasangano anoshandisa maturusi avo emangwana. Pamusoro pezvo, kuvandudzwa kweramangwana re nickel derivatives hakuna kuenderera mberi, izvo zvakawedzerawo njodzi dzekutengesa dzemakambani ane chekuita nickel-anoenderana neperipheral zvigadzirwa pakushandisa kuchengetedza kukosha kwechigadzirwa.
NezveKukwirisa China's Nickel Supply Chain
Kumwe Kurudziro kubva kuSafety Issues
Kutanga, tevedzera kufunga kwepasi uye tora danho rekudzivirira nekudzora njodzi. Iyo isiri-ferrous simbi indasitiri ine zvakajairwa hunhu hwekushambadzira, internationalization uye mari. Naizvozvo, mabhizinesi emaindasitiri anofanirwa kuvandudza ruzivo rwekudzivirira njodzi, kumisikidza kufunga kwepasi, uye kugadzirisa danho rekushandisa rekushandisa njodzi. Mabhizinesi emasangano anofanirwa kuremekedza musika, kutya musika, uye kutonga mashandiro awo. Mabhizinesi "ari kubuda" anofanirwa kunyatsoziva mitemo yemusika wepasi rose, kuita zvirongwa zvekupindura zvechimbichimbi, uye kudzivirira kuvhimwa nekudzipwa nemari yekufungidzira mhiri kwemakungwa. Mabhizinesi anotsigirwa neChinese anofanira kudzidza kubva pane zvakaitika uye zvidzidzo.
Chechipiri ndechekusimudzira hurongwa hwekudyidzana nedzimwe nyika kweramangwana reChina nickel uye kuvandudza simba remitengo yezvinhu zvakawanda zveChina. Chiitiko che "nickel remangwana" chinoratidza kukosha uye nekukasira kwekusimudzira kudyidzana kwenyika kune akakodzera simbi isina-ferrous remangwana, kunyanya maererano nekukurumidzira kusimudzirwa kwemahwendefa epasi rose ealuminium, nickel, zingi uye mamwe marudzi. Pasi pemagadzirirwo epamusoro-soro, kana nyika yezviwanikwa ikakwanisa kutora musika-yakatarisana nekutenga nemitengo yemhando ye "yepasirese puratifomu, bonde dhizaini, mambure mutengo wekutengesa, uye RMB dhizaini", haizongosimbisa mufananidzo weChina wekutengesa kwakasimba kwakanangana nemusika, asi zvakare kuwedzera China yakawanda yemitengo yemitengo. Inogona zvakare kuderedza njodzi yekuvharira yemabhizinesi ekunze anotsigirwa neChina. Pamusoro pezvo, zvinodikanwa kusimbaradza tsvagiridzo yekuchinja kweindasitiri yenickel, uye kusimudza kurima kwemhando dzenguva yemberi dze nickel.
NezveKukwirisa China's Nickel Supply Chain
Kumwe Kurudziro kubva kuSafety Issues
Kutanga, tevedzera kufunga kwepasi uye tora danho rekudzivirira nekudzora njodzi. Iyo isiri-ferrous simbi indasitiri ine zvakajairwa hunhu hwekushambadzira, internationalization uye mari. Naizvozvo, mabhizinesi emaindasitiri anofanirwa kuvandudza ruzivo rwekudzivirira njodzi, kumisikidza kufunga kwepasi, uye kugadzirisa danho rekushandisa rekushandisa njodzi. Mabhizinesi emasangano anofanirwa kuremekedza musika, kutya musika, uye kutonga mashandiro awo. Mabhizinesi "ari kubuda" anofanirwa kunyatsoziva mitemo yemusika wepasi rose, kuita zvirongwa zvekupindura zvechimbichimbi, uye kudzivirira kuvhimwa nekudzipwa nemari yekufungidzira mhiri kwemakungwa. Mabhizinesi anotsigirwa neChinese anofanira kudzidza kubva pane zvakaitika uye zvidzidzo.
Chechipiri ndechekusimudzira hurongwa hwekudyidzana nedzimwe nyika kweramangwana reChina nickel uye kuvandudza simba remitengo yezvinhu zvakawanda zveChina. Chiitiko che "nickel futures event" chinoratidza kukosha nekukasira kwekusimudzira kutengeserana kwenyika kune remangwana resimbi risina ferrous, kunyanya maererano neKusimudzirwa kwemahwendefa epasi rose ealuminium, nickel, zinc uye mamwe marudzi ari kukurumidza. Pasi pemagadzirirwo epamusoro-soro, kana nyika yezviwanikwa ikakwanisa kutora musika-yakatarisana nekutenga nemitengo yemhando ye "yepasirese puratifomu, bonde dhizaini, mambure mutengo wekutengesa, uye RMB dhizaini", haizongosimbisa mufananidzo weChina wekutengesa kwakasimba kwakanangana nemusika, asi zvakare kuwedzera China yakawanda yemitengo yemitengo. Inogona zvakare kuderedza njodzi yekuvharira yemabhizinesi ekunze anotsigirwa neChina. Pamusoro pezvo, zvinodikanwa kusimbaradza tsvagiridzo yekuchinja kweindasitiri yenickel, uye kusimudza kurima kwemhando dzenguva yemberi dze nickel.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-12-2022