Maitiro Ekuvandudza Kuchengetedzeka kweChina Nickel Supply Chain Kubva ku "Nickel Futures Incident"?

Abstract:Kubva pakutanga kwezana ramakore idzva, nekuenderera mberi kwekuenderera mberi kweiyo nickel indasitiri yemidziyo tekinoroji uye kukurumidza kusimudzira indasitiri yesimba idzva, pasi rose nickel indasitiri maitiro akaita shanduko huru, uye mabhizinesi anotsigirwa neChina akaita basa rakakosha mukusimudzira. shanduko yepasi rose nickel indasitiri pateni.Panguva imwecheteyo, yakaitawo mipiro yakatanhamara kune chengetedzo yepasi rose nickel supply chain.

Remekedza Musika uye Remekedza Musika--Maitiro Ekuvandudza Kuchengetedzwa kweChina Nickel Supply Chain kubva ku "Nickel Futures Incident"

Kubva pakutanga kwezana ramakore idzva, nekuenderera mberi kwekuenderera mberi kweiyo nickel indasitiri yemidziyo tekinoroji uye kukurumidza kusimudzira indasitiri yesimba idzva, iyo yepasi rose nickel indasitiri maitiro akaita shanduko huru, uye mabhizinesi anotsigirwa neChina akaita basa rakakosha kusimudzira shanduko yepasi rose nickel indasitiri pateni.Panguva imwecheteyo, yakaitawo mipiro yakatanhamara kune chengetedzo yepasi rose nickel supply chain.Asi mutengo weLondon nickel ramangwana muna Kurume gore rino wakakwira neasina kumboitika 248% mumazuva maviri, zvichikonzera kukanganisa kwakanyanya kumakambani chaiwo anosanganisira China.Kuti izvi zviitike, kubva pakuchinja kwemaitiro eindasitiri yenickel mumakore achangopfuura, yakasanganiswa ne "nickel ramangwana chiitiko", munyori anotaura nezve nzira yekuvandudza kuchengetedzwa kweChina nickel supply chain.

Shanduko mune yepasi rose nickel indasitiri pateni

Panyaya yechiyero chekushandisa, kushandiswa kwe nickel kwawedzera nekukurumidza, uye China ndiyo inonyanya kubatsira mukushandiswa kwepasi rose nickel.Zvinoenderana nehuwandu hweNickel Indasitiri Bazi reChina Nonferrous Metals Indasitiri Association, muna 2021, kushandiswa kwepasi rose nickel kuchasvika 2.76 miriyoni matani, gore negore kuwedzera kwe15.9% uye 1,5 nguva yekudyiwa muna2001. ivo, muna 2021, kushandiswa kweNickel kweChina kuchasvika mamiriyoni 1.542 emamiriyoni, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe14%, 18 nguva yekudyiwa muna 2001, uye chikamu chekushandiswa kwepasi rose chakawedzera kubva pa4,5% muna 2001 kusvika ku56 ikozvino. %.Zvinogona kutaurwa kuti 90% yekuwedzera kwepasi rose nickel kushandiswa kubva pakutanga kwezana ramakore idzva yakabva kuChina.

Kubva pakuona kwemaitiro ekushandisa, kushandiswa kwesimbi isina tsvina kwakanyatso kugadzikana, uye chikamu chenickel chinoshandiswa mumunda webhatiri chinoramba chichiwedzera.Mumakore maviri apfuura, chikamu chitsva chesimba chiri kutungamira kukura kwepasi rose primary nickel kushandiswa.Maererano nenhamba, muna 2001, muChina chekushandisa nickel chimiro, nickel yesimbi isina tsvina yaisvika 70%, nickel ye electroplating inosvika 15%, uye nickel yemabhatiri yaitora 5%.Pakazosvika 2021, chikamu chenickel inoshandiswa musimbi isina tsvina muChina nickel inoshandiswa inenge inenge 74%;chikamu che nickel inoshandiswa mumabhatiri chichakwira kusvika ku15%;chikamu chenickel inoshandiswa mu electroplating chinodonha kusvika pa5%.Izvo hazvina kumboonekwa kuti sezvo indasitiri yemagetsi nyowani inopinda munzira inokurumidza, kudiwa kwenickel kuchawedzera, uye chikamu chemabhatiri muchimiro chekushandisa chichawedzera kuwedzera.

Kubva pakuona kwemaitiro ekugovera ezvigadzirwa, nickel mbishi zvinhu zvakashandurwa kubva nickel sulfide ore kunyanya kuita laterite nickel ore uye nickel sulfide ore inodzorwa pamwe chete.Yaimbove nickel zviwanikwa zvainyanya kuve nickel sulfide ore ine zviwanikwa zvepasirese zvakanyanya, uye nickel sulfide zviwanikwa zvakanyanyonangana muAustralia, Canada, Russia, China nedzimwe nyika, ichiverengera inopfuura 50% yehuwandu hwepasi rose nickel reserves panguva iyoyo.Kubva pakutanga kwezana ramakore idzva, nekushandiswa uye kusimudzirwa kweiyo laterite nickel ore-nickel-iron tekinoroji muChina, laterite nickel ore muIndonesia nePhilippines yakagadziridzwa uye inoshandiswa pamwero mukuru.Muna 2021, Indonesia ichave inogadzira nickel hombe pasi rose, zvinova mhedzisiro yekubatanidzwa kweChinese tekinoroji, capital uye Indonesian zviwanikwa.Kudyidzana pakati peChina neIndonesia kwakapa zvakakosha mukubudirira uye kugadzikana kwepasi rose nickel supply chain.

Kubva pamaonero ekugadzirwa kwechigadzirwa, zvigadzirwa zve nickel mumunda wekutenderera zviri kusimukira kusvika pakusiyana.Maererano nehuwandu hweNickel Industry Branch, muna 2001, mukugadzirwa kwepasi rose nickel, yakanatswa nickel yakaverengera nzvimbo huru, uyezve, chikamu chiduku chaiva nickel ferronickel uye nickel munyu;panosvika 2021, mukugadzirwa kwepasi rose nickel, kugadzirwa kwakanatswa nickel kwakaverengerwa kuti Yakadonha kusvika pa33%, nepo chikamu cheNPI (nickel pig iron) chine nickel-ine kugadzirwa chakwira kusvika ku50%, uye yechinyakare nickel-iron uye nickel. munyu wakaverengera 17%.Zvinotarisirwa kuti panosvika 2025, chikamu chekunatswa nickel mukugadzirwa kwepasi rose nickel kuchawedzera kuderera.Pamusoro pezvo, kubva pakuona kweChina yekutanga nickel chigadzirwa chimiro, ingangoita 63% yezvigadzirwa iNPI (nickel pig iron), ingangoita 25% yezvigadzirwa zvakanatswa nickel, uye ingangoita 12% yezvigadzirwa nickel munyu.

Kubva pamaonero ekuchinja kwemakambani emusika, mabhizinesi akazvimiririra ave simba guru mukugovera nickel muChina uye kunyangwe pasirese.Zvinoenderana nehuwandu kubva kuNickel Indasitiri Bazi, pakati pe677,000 matani ekutanga nickel kubuda muChina muna 2021, mabhizinesi mashanu epamusoro akazvimirira, anosanganisira Shandong Xinhai, Qingshan Indasitiri, Delong Nickel, Tangshan Kaiyuan, Suqian Xiangxiang, uye Guangxi Yinyi, akagadzira epuraimari. nickel.dzakasvika 62.8%.Kunyanya maererano nekumisikidzwa kwemaindasitiri ekunze, mabhizinesi akazvimirira anodarika makumi manomwe neshanu muzana emabhizinesi ekudyara mhiri kwemakungwa, uye yakazara maindasitiri cheni yelateite nickel mugodhi kugadzirwa-nickel-iron-stainless simbi yakagadzirwa muIndonesia.

Iyo "nickel ramangwana chiitiko" ine zvakakosha pamusika

Mamiriro nematambudziko akafumurwa

Chekutanga, mutengo weLME nickel ramangwana wakakwira zvine chisimba kubva Kurume 7 kusvika 8, nekuwedzera kwe248% mumazuva maviri, izvo zvakatungamira kumisikidzwa kweLME ramangwana musika uye kuenderera kusimuka nekudonha kweShanghai nickel paShanghai Futures. Exchange.Mutengo weramangwana haungorasikirwe nekukosha kwekutungamira kumutengo wenzvimbo, asi zvakare unogadzira zvipingamupinyi uye kuomerwa kwemabhizinesi kutenga zvigadzirwa uye hedging.Zvinokanganisawo kugadzirwa kwakajairika uye kushanda kwenickel kumusoro nepasi, zvichikonzera kukuvadzwa kukuru kune nickel yepasi rose uye zvine chekuita nepamusoro nepasi.

Chechipiri ndechekuti "nickel remangwana chiitiko" mhedzisiro yekushaikwa kwekuziva kwekambani yekudzora njodzi, kushomeka kwekambani kushamiswa kwemusika wemangwana wemari, kusakwana kwekugadzirisa njodzi kwemusika weLME remangwana, uye kukwidziridzwa kwegeopolitical mutations. .Zvisinei, kubva pakuona kwezvinhu zvemukati, chiitiko ichi chakafumura dambudziko rekuti ikozvino misika yemazuva ano yekumadokero iri kure nekugadzirwa uye nzvimbo dzekushandisa, haigoni kuzadzisa zvinodiwa zvemabhizimisi chaiwo, uye kukurudzirwa kwezvitsva zve nickel hazvina kuchengetwa. nebudiriro uye shanduko dzeindasitiri.Parizvino, hupfumi hwakasimukira hwakaita sekuMadokero havasi vatengi vakakura vesimbi dzisina ferrous kana vagadziri vakuru.Kunyangwe marongerwo ekuchengetera zvinhu ari pasi rese, matura echiteshi mazhinji uye makambani ekuchengetera zvinhu anodzorwa nevatengesi vekare vekuEurope.Panguva imwecheteyo, nekuda kwekushaikwa kwenzira dzinoshanda dzekudzora njodzi, Kune njodzi dzakavanzika kana makambani emasangano anoshandisa maturusi avo emangwana.Pamusoro pezvo, kuvandudzwa kweramangwana re nickel derivatives hakuna kuenderera, izvo zvakawedzera njodzi dzekutengesa dzemakambani ane chekuita ne nickel eparipheral zvigadzirwa pakushandisa kuchengetedza kukosha kwechigadzirwa.

NezveKukwirisa China's Nickel Supply Chain

Kumwe Kurudziro kubva kuSafety Issues

Kutanga, tevedzera kufunga kwepasi uye tora danho rekudzivirira nekudzora njodzi.Iyo isiri-ferrous simbi indasitiri ine yakajairika maitiro ekushambadzira, kushambadzira kwenyika uye kuita mari.Naizvozvo, mabhizinesi emaindasitiri anofanirwa kuvandudza ruzivo rwekudzivirira njodzi, kumisikidza kufunga-pazasi, uye kuvandudza mwero wekushandisa wezvishandiso zvekutarisira njodzi.Mabhizinesi emasangano anofanirwa kuremekedza musika, kutya musika, uye kutonga mashandiro awo.Mabhizinesi "ari kubuda" anofanirwa kunyatsoziva mitemo yemusika wepasi rose, kuita zvirongwa zvekupindura zvechimbichimbi, uye kudzivirira kuvhimwa nekudzipwa nemari yekufungidzira yekumhiri kwemakungwa.Mabhizinesi anotsigirwa neChinese anofanira kudzidza kubva pane zvakaitika uye zvidzidzo.

Chechipiri ndechekusimudzira hurongwa hwekudyidzana nedzimwe nyika kweramangwana reChina nickel uye kuvandudza simba remitengo yezvinhu zvakawanda zveChina.Chiitiko che "nickel remangwana" chinoratidza kukosha uye nekukasira kwekusimudzira kudyidzana kwenyika kune akakodzera simbi isina-ferrous remangwana, kunyanya maererano nekukurumidzira kusimudzirwa kwemahwendefa epasi rose ealuminium, nickel, zingi uye mamwe marudzi.Pasi pedhizaini yepamusoro-soro, kana nyika yezviwanikwa ikakwanisa kutora misika-yakatarisana nekutenga nekutengesa mitengo yemhando ye "yepasirese chikuva, bonded delivery, net mutengo transaction, uye RMB denomination", haizongomisikidza chete China mufananidzo wemusika wakasimba. -yakatarisana nekutengeserana, asi zvakare inosimudzira yeChina yakawanda yemitengo yemitengo kugona.Inogona zvakare kuderedza njodzi yekuvharisa yemabhizinesi ekunze anotsigirwa neChinese.Pamusoro pezvo, zvinodikanwa kusimbisa tsvagiridzo yekuchinja kweindasitiri yenickel, uye kusimudza kurima kwemhando dzenguva yemberi dze nickel.

NezveKukwirisa China's Nickel Supply Chain

Kumwe Kurudziro kubva kuSafety Issues

Kutanga, tevedzera kufunga kwepasi uye tora danho rekudzivirira nekudzora njodzi.Iyo isiri-ferrous simbi indasitiri ine yakajairika maitiro ekushambadzira, kushambadzira kwenyika uye kuita mari.Naizvozvo, mabhizinesi emaindasitiri anofanirwa kuvandudza ruzivo rwekudzivirira njodzi, kumisikidza kufunga-pazasi, uye kuvandudza mwero wekushandisa wezvishandiso zvekutarisira njodzi.Mabhizinesi emasangano anofanirwa kuremekedza musika, kutya musika, uye kutonga mashandiro awo.Mabhizinesi "ari kubuda" anofanirwa kunyatsoziva mitemo yemusika wepasi rose, kuita zvirongwa zvekupindura zvechimbichimbi, uye kudzivirira kuvhimwa nekudzipwa nemari yekufungidzira yekumhiri kwemakungwa.Mabhizinesi anotsigirwa neChinese anofanira kudzidza kubva pane zvakaitika uye zvidzidzo.

Chechipiri ndechekusimudzira hurongwa hwekudyidzana nedzimwe nyika kweramangwana reChina nickel uye kuvandudza simba remitengo yezvinhu zvakawanda zveChina.Chiitiko che "nickel futures event" chinoratidza kukosha nekukasira kwekusimudzira kudyidzana kwenyika dzepasirese kweramangwana resimbi risina ferrous, kunyanya maererano neKusimudzirwa kwemahwendefa epasi rose ealuminium, nickel, zingi uye mamwe marudzi ari kukurumidza.Pasi pedhizaini yepamusoro-soro, kana nyika yezviwanikwa ikakwanisa kutora misika-yakatarisana nekutenga nekutengesa mitengo yemhando ye "yepasirese chikuva, bonded delivery, net mutengo transaction, uye RMB denomination", haizongomisikidza chete China mufananidzo wemusika wakasimba. -yakatarisana nekutengeserana, asi zvakare inosimudzira yeChina yakawanda yemitengo yemitengo kugona.Inogona zvakare kuderedza njodzi yekuvharisa yemabhizinesi ekunze anotsigirwa neChinese.Pamusoro pezvo, zvinodikanwa kusimbisa tsvagiridzo yekuchinja kweindasitiri yenickel, uye kusimudza kurima kwemhando dzenguva yemberi dzenickel.


Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-12-2022