Abstract:Kupokana pakati pekupa uye kudiwa ndicho chimwe chezvikonzero zviri kukonzera kukwira kwemitengo yenickel, asi kuseri kwemamiriro emusika anotyisa, fungidziro dzakawanda muindasitiri "yakawanda" (inotungamirwa naGlencore) uye "isina" (kunyanya neTsingshan Group)..
Munguva ichangopfuura, nekunetsana pakati peRussia neUkraine sefiyuzi, LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel remangwana rakatanga mumusika we "epic".
Kupokana kuri pakati pekupa uye kudiwa ndicho chimwe chezvikonzero zviri kukonzera kukwira kwemitengo yenickel, asi kuseri kwemamiriro emusika anotyisa, fungidziro zhinji muindasitiri ndeyekuti masimba makuru emativi maviri aya "nzombe" (inotungamirwa naGlencore) uye " empty" (kunyanya neTsingshan Group).
LME nickel musika wenguva yekupedzisa
Musi waKurume 7, iyo LME nickel mutengo wakakwira kubva kuUS $ 30,000/tani (mutengo wekuvhura) kuenda kuUS $50,900/ton (mutengo wekugadzirisa), kuwedzera kwezuva rimwe chete kweanosvika makumi manomwe%.
Musi waKurume 8, mitengo yenickel yeLME yakaramba ichikwira, ichikwira kusvika paUS$101,000/ton, uye yodzokera kuUS$80,000/ton.Mumazuva maviri ekutengesa, iyo LME nickel mutengo wakakwira nekusvika 248%.
Na4:00 pm musi waKurume 8, iyo LME yakafunga kumisa kutengeswa kweramangwana renickel uye kumisikidza kuendeswa kwezvibvumirano zvese zvepinickel zvakarongwa kuti zviunzwe musi wa9 Kurume.
Musi waKurume 9, Tsingshan Group yakapindura kuti ichatsiva iyo yemba simbi nickel ndiro neiyo yakakwira matte nickel plate, uye yagovera nzvimbo yakakwana yekutumira kuburikidza nematanho akasiyana.
Musi waKurume 10, LME yakati yakaronga kugadzirisa zvinzvimbo zvirefu uye zvipfupi pamberi pekuvhurwa kwekutengesa nickel, asi mativi ese akatadza kupindura zvakanaka.
Kubva Kurume 11 kusvika 15, LME nickel yakaramba ichimiswa.
Musi waKurume 15, iyo LME yakazivisa kuti chibvumirano chenickel chaizotanga kutengeserana munaKurume 16 nguva yemuno.Tsingshan Group yakataura kuti ichabatana nemubatanidzwa wechikwereti chechikwereti cheTsingshan's nickel inobata margin uye zvinodiwa zvekugadzirisa.
Muchidimbu, Russia, semutengesi akakosha wezviwanikwa zve nickel, yakatemerwa chirango nekuda kwehondo yeRussia-Ukrainian, zvichikonzera kusakwanisa kweRussia nickel kuendeswa paLME, yakasimudzwa pazvinhu zvakawanda sekutadza kuzadza nickel zviwanikwa mu. Maodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia nenguva, Tsingshan Group's isina chinhu maodha ehedging inogona kusagoneka Yakanunurwa nenguva, izvo zvakagadzira cheni kuita.
Pane zviratidzo zvakasiyana-siyana zvekuti ichi chinodaidzwa kuti "pfupi kusvina" chiitiko hachisati chapera, uye kutaurirana uye mutambo pakati pevatori venguva refu uye vapfupi, LME, uye masangano emari achiri kuenderera mberi.
Kutora izvi semukana, chinyorwa ichi chinoedza kupindura mibvunzo inotevera:
1. Sei nickel simbi ichiva iyo yakanangana nemutambo mukuru?
2. Kupiwa kwezviwanikwa zvenickel zvakakwana here?
3. Iko kuwedzera kwemutengo we nickel kuchakanganisa musika mutsva wemotokari yemagetsi?
Nickel yebhatiri remagetsi inova danda idzva rekukura
Nekukurumidza kuvandudzwa kwemotokari nyowani dzesimba munyika, yakakwirisa maitiro eiyo nickel yakakwira uye yakaderera cobalt mumabhatiri e-ternary lithium, nickel yemabhatiri emagetsi yave kuita danda rekukura rekushandisa nickel.
Indasitiri inofanotaura kuti panosvika 2025, bhatiri repasi rose ternary bhatiri richaita 50%, iro repamusoro-nickel ternary mabhatiri achaita anopfuura 83%, uye chikamu che5-series ternary mabhatiri achadonha kusvika pazasi 17%.Kudiwa kwenickel kuchawedzerawo kubva pamatani makumi matanhatu nematanhatu muna 2020 kusvika 620,000 matani muna 2025, neavhareji yegore negore kukura kwemakumi mana nesere muzana mumakore mana anotevera.
Zvinoenderana nekufanotaura, kudiwa kwepasi rose kwenickel yemabhatiri emagetsi kuchawedzerawo kubva pasi pe7% parizvino kusvika pa26% muna 2030.
Semutungamiri wepasi rose mumotokari dzesimba idzva, maitiro aTesla "nickel hoarding" anenge anopenga.Tesla CEO Musk akataurawo kakawanda kuti nickel mbishi zvinhu ndiyo hombe bhodhoro raTesla.
Gaogong Lithium yakaona kuti kubvira 2021, Tesla yakabatana zvakatevedzana nekambani yeFrench New Caledonia migodhi yeProni Resources, hofori yemugodhi weAustralia BHP Billiton, Brazil Vale, kambani yemigodhi yekuCanada Giga Metals, American miner Talon Metals, nezvimwewo. Makambani akati wandei emigodhi akasaina. zvibvumirano zvenguva refu zvekupa nickel inotarisa.
Pamusoro pezvo, makambani ari muindasitiri yemabhatiri emagetsi akadai seCATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, uye Tsingshan Group ari kuwedzerawo kutonga kwavo pamusoro pezviwanikwa zvenickel.
Izvi zvinoreva kuti kudzora nickel zviwanikwa zvakaenzana nekugona tikiti retrillion-dollar track.
Glencore ndiye mutengesi mukuru wepasi rose uye mumwe wepasi rose anogadzira zvakare uye mapurosesa emidziyo ine nickel, ine portfolio yemigodhi inechekuita nickel muCanada, Norway, Australia neNew Coledonia.assets.Muna 2021, mari yekambani nickel asset ichave US $ 2.816 bhiriyoni, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe20%.
Zvinoenderana nedatha yeLME, kubva muna Ndira 10, 2022, chikamu chemarisiti eremangwana reimba yekuchengetera nickel inobatwa nemutengi mumwechete yakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pa30% kusvika pa39%, uye kutanga kwaKurume, chikamu chemarisiti emudura chapfuura 90% .
Maererano nehukuru uhu, misika inofungidzira kuti mabhuru ari mumutambo wenguva pfupi uyu anogona kunge ari Glencore.
Kune rimwe divi, Tsingshan Group yakaputsa tekinoroji yekugadzirira ye "NPI (nickel pig iron from laterite nickel ore) - high nickel matte", iyo yakaderedza zvakanyanya mutengo uye inotarisirwa kutyora kukanganiswa kwenickel sulfate pane pure nickel. (ine nickel yemukati isingasviki 99.8 %, inozivikanwawo seprimary nickel).
Kune rimwe divi, 2022 richava gore iro chirongwa chitsva cheTsingshan Group muIndonesia chichaitwa.Tsingshan ine tarisiro yakasimba yekukura kune yayo pachayo yekugadzira iri kuvakwa.Muna Kurume 2021, Tsingshan yakasaina chibvumirano chepamusoro chenickel matte neHuayou Cobalt neZhongwei Co., Ltd. Tsingshan ichapa matani makumi matanhatu emhando yepamusoro nickel matte kuna Huayou Cobalt uye zviuru makumi mana zvematani kuZhongwei Co., Ltd. mukati megore rimwe kubva Gumiguru 21 21 High nickel matte.
Izvo zvinofanirwa kutaurwa kuti izvo LME zvinodikanwa zvekutengesa nickel zvigadzirwa ndeye nickel yakachena, uye yakakwira matte nickel chigadzirwa chepakati chisingagone kushandiswa pakuunza.Qingshan pure nickel inonyanya kutengwa kubva kuRussia.Nickel yeRussia yakarambidzwa kutengesa nekuda kwehondo yeRussia-Ukrainian, ichitungamira pasirese yakaderera nickel inventory, izvo zvakaisa Qingshan munjodzi ye "hapana zvinhu zvekugadzirisa".
Izvo chaizvo nekuda kweizvi kuti mutambo wakareba-mupfupi wesimbi nickel wave pedyo.
Global nickel reserves uye kupa
Sekureva kweUnited States Geological Survey (USGS), kusvika pakupera kwa2021, pasi rose nickel reserves (yakaratidza kuchengeterwa kwenzvimbo-yakavakirwa pasi) ingangoita 95 miriyoni matani.
Pakati pavo, Indonesia neAustralia dzine matani anosvika mamiriyoni makumi maviri nerimwe zvichiteerana, achiverengera 22%, achiisa maviri epamusoro;Brazil inoita 17% yenickel reserves yematani mamiriyoni gumi nematanhatu, iri pachinhanho chechitatu;Russia nePhilippines vanotora 8% uye 5% zvichiteerana.%, iri pachinhanho chechina kana chechishanu.TOP5 nyika dzinoita 74% yepasi rose nickel zviwanikwa.
China nickel reserves ingangoita 2.8 miriyoni matani, inoverengera 3%.Semutengi mukuru wezviwanikwa zvenickel, China inotsamira zvakanyanya kubva kunze kwenyika kwenickel zviwanikwa, ine mwero wekunze wepamusoro pe80% kwemakore mazhinji.
Zvinoenderana nehunhu hweore, nickel ore inonyanya kukamurwa kuita nickel sulfide uye laterite nickel, ine reshiyo inosvika 6:4.Iyo yekare inonyanya kuwanikwa muAustralia, Russia nedzimwe nzvimbo, uye iyo yekupedzisira inonyanya kuwanikwa muIndonesia, Brazil, Philippines nedzimwe nzvimbo.
Zvinoenderana nemusika wekushandisa, iyo yakadzika kudiwa kwenickel inonyanya kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina tsvina, alloys uye mabhatiri emagetsi.Simbi isina tsvina inosvika 72%, alloys uye castings account inosvika 12%, uye nickel yemabhatiri ingangoita 7%.
Pakutanga, pakanga paine nzira mbiri dzakazvimiririra dzekugovera mucheni yekugovera nickel: "latterite nickel-nickel pig iron/nickel iron-stainless steel" uye "nickel sulfide-pure nickel-battery nickel".
Panguva imwecheteyo, musika wekupa uye unodiwa we nickel zvakare zvishoma nezvishoma wakatarisana nekusaenzana kwechimiro.Kune rumwe rutivi, nhamba yakawanda ye nickel yenguruve iron mapurojekiti akabudiswa neRKEF maitiro akaiswa mukushanda, zvichiita kuti pave nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwe nickel pig iron;kune rumwe rutivi, inotungamirirwa nekukurumidza kukura kwemotokari itsva simba, mabhatiri Kukura kwe nickel kwakakonzera kushayikwa kwechidimbu che nickel yakachena.
Data kubva kuWorld Bureau of Metal Statistics report inoratidza kuti pachava nekusara kwe84,000 matani enickel muna 2020. Kutanga muna 2021, pasi rose nickel inoda ichakwira zvakanyanya.Kutengeswa kwemotokari nyowani dzesimba kwakafambisa kukura kweiyo marginal kushandiswa kwenickel, uye kushomeka kwekupa mumusika wepasi rose nickel kuchasvika 144,300 matani muna 2021.
Nekudaro, nekubudirira kweyepakati chigadzirwa kugadzirisa tekinoroji, iyo yataurwa pamusoro apa mbiri mbiri yekugovera nzira iri kuputswa.Kutanga, yakaderera-giredhi laterite ore inogona kuburitsa nickel sulfate kuburikidza nekunyorova kwepakati chigadzirwa cheHPAL process;chechipiri, yakakwira-giredhi laterite ore inogona kugadzira nickel yenguruve iron kuburikidza neRKEF pyrotechnic process, uye yobva yapfuura nemushanduri inovhuvhuta kuti ibudise yakakwira-giredhi nickel matte, iyo inozoburitsa nickel sulfate.Inoona mukana wekuti laterite nickel ore application muindasitiri itsva yesimba.
Parizvino, mapurojekiti ekugadzira anoshandisa tekinoroji yeHPAL anosanganisira Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, nezvimwewo. Panguva imwecheteyo, chirongwa cheQingmeibang chakaiswa neCATL neGEM, Huayue nickel-cobalt chirongwa chakaiswa naHuayou Cobalt, uye Huafei nickel. -cobalt chirongwa chakadyarwa neYiwei ese ese HPAL mapurojekiti.
Mukuwedzera, iyo yakakwirira nickel matte purojekiti inotungamirirwa neTsingshan Group yakaiswa mukushanda, iyo yakazarurawo mukaha pakati pelateite nickel uye nickel sulfate, uye yakaziva kutendeuka kwenickel pig iron pakati pesimbi isina tsvina uye simba idzva maindasitiri.
Maonero eindasitiri ndeokuti munguva pfupi, kuburitswa kwepamusoro nickel matte kugadzirwa kwesimba hakusati kwasvika pahukuru hwekurerutsa gap rekupa renickel elements, uye kukura kwenickel sulfate supply kuchiri kunoenderana nekunyungudutsa nickel yekutanga senge. nickel beans/nickel powder.chengetedza maitiro akasimba.
Nekufamba kwenguva, kushandiswa kwenickel muminda yechinyakare sesimbi isina tsvina yakaramba ichikura, uye maitiro ekukurumidza kukura mumunda we ternary simba mabhatiri ndeyechokwadi.Kukwanisa kwekugadzirwa kwe "nickel pig iron-high nickel matte" chirongwa chakabudiswa, uye HPAL process project ichapinda munguva yekugadzira yakawanda muna 2023. Izvo zvose zvinodiwa zve nickel zviwanikwa zvichachengetedza kuenzanisa kwakasimba pakati pekupa uye kudiwa mu ramangwana.
Iko kukanganisa kwekukwira kwemutengo nickel pamusika mutsva wemotokari yemagetsi
Muchokwadi, nekuda kwekukwira kuri kuita nickel mutengo, Tesla's Model 3 yepamusoro-performance vhezheni uye Model Y yenguva refu yehupenyu, yepamusoro-yekuita shanduro inoshandisa yakakwirira-nickel mabhatiri akawedzera ne10,000 yuan.
Maererano neGWh yega yega yepamusoro-nickel ternary lithium bhatiri (kutora NCM 811 semuenzaniso), 750 simbi matani nickel anodiwa, uye imwe neimwe GWh yepakati uye yakaderera nickel (5 series, 6 series) ternary lithium mabhatiri inoda 500-600. matani esimbi nickel.Zvino mutengo weunickel unowedzera ne10,000 yuan patani yesimbi, zvinoreva kuti mutengo weternary lithium mabhatiri paGWh unowedzera nemamiriyoni mashanu eyuan kusvika 7,5 miriyoni yuan.
Kufungidzira kwakashata ndeyekuti kana mutengo we nickel uri US $ 50,000 / toni, mutengo weTesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) uchawedzera ne10,500 yuan;uye kana mutengo we nickel uchikwira ku US $ 100,000 / ton, mutengo weTesla Model 3 uchawedzera.Kuwedzera kweanoda kusvika 28,000 yuan.
Kubva 2021, kutengesa kwepasirese kwemotokari nyowani dzesimba kwakawedzera, uye musika wekupinda wemabhatiri emagetsi epamusoro-nickel wawedzera.
Kunyanya, mhando dzepamusoro-soro dzemotokari dzemagetsi dzemhiri kwemakungwa dzinonyanya kutora nzira yepamusoro-nickel tekinoroji, izvo zvakakonzera kuwedzera kukuru kwekuiswa kwemabhatiri epamusoro-nickel pamusika wepasirese, kusanganisira CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI nemamwe makambani anotungamira mabhatiri muChina, Japan neSouth Korea.
Nezvekukanganisa, kune rumwe rutivi, ikozvino kutendeuka kwe nickel pig iron kusvika kune yakakwirira matte nickel yakatungamirira kusunungurwa zvishoma nezvishoma kwehuwandu hwekugadzira purojekiti nekuda kwehupfumi husina kukwana.Mitengo yenickel inoramba ichikwira, izvo zvinosimudzira kugona kwekugadzira kweIndonesia yakakwira nickel matte mapurojekiti kuti akurumidze kubuda.
Kune rimwe divi, nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu, mota nyowani dzesimba dzakatanga kukwidza mitengo pamwe chete.Indasitiri iyi inowanzo shushikana kuti kana mutengo wezvinhu zve nickel ukaramba uchivirisa, kugadzirwa uye kutengeswa kwemhando dzepamusoro-nickel dzemotokari dzemagetsi matsva zvinogona kuwedzera kana kushomeka gore rino.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-12-2022