Sei Nickel Inopenga?

Abstract:Kupokana pakati pekupa uye kudiwa ndicho chimwe chezvikonzero zviri kukonzera kukwira kwemitengo yenickel, asi kuseri kwemamiriro emusika anotyisa, fungidziro zhinji muindasitiri "yakawanda" (inotungamirwa naGlencore) uye "isina" (kunyanya neTsingshan Group)..

Munguva ichangopfuura, nekunetsana pakati peRussia neUkraine sefiyuzi, LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel remangwana rakatanga mumusika we "epic".

Kupokana kuri pakati pekupa uye kudiwa ndicho chimwe chezvikonzero zviri kukonzera kukwira kwemitengo yenickel, asi kuseri kwemamiriro emusika anotyisa, fungidziro zhinji muindasitiri ndeyekuti masimba makuru emativi maviri aya "nzombe" (inotungamirwa naGlencore) uye " empty" (kunyanya neTsingshan Group).

LME nickel musika wenguva yekupedzisa

Musi waKurume 7, iyo LME nickel mutengo wakakwira kubva kuUS $ 30,000/tani (mutengo wekuvhura) kuenda kuUS $50,900/ton (mutengo wekugadzirisa), kuwedzera kwezuva rimwe chete kwe70%.

Musi wa8 Kurume, mitengo yenickel yeLME yakaramba ichikwira, ichikwira kusvika paUS$101,000/ton, uye yodzokera kuUS$80,000/ton.Mumazuva maviri ekutengesa, iyo LME nickel mutengo wakakwira nekusvika 248%.

Na 4:00 pm musi wa8 Kurume, iyo LME yakafunga kumisa kutengeswa kweramangwana renickel uye kumisikidza kuendesa kwese zvibvumirano zvenickel zvakarongerwa kuendeswa musi wa9 Kurume.

Musi waKurume 9, Tsingshan Group yakapindura kuti ichatsiva iyo yemba yesimbi nickel ndiro neiyo yakakwira matte nickel plate, uye yagovera nzvimbo yakakwana yekutumira kuburikidza nematanho akasiyana.

Musi waKurume 10, LME yakati yakaronga kugadzirisa zvinzvimbo zvirefu uye zvipfupi pamberi pekuvhurwa kwekutengesa nickel, asi mativi ese akatadza kupindura zvakanaka.

Kubva Kurume 11 kusvika 15, LME nickel yakaramba ichimiswa.

Musi waKurume 15, iyo LME yakazivisa kuti chibvumirano chenickel chaizotangazve kutengesa munaKurume 16 nguva yemuno.Tsingshan Group yakataura kuti ichabatana nemubatanidzwa wechikwereti chechikwereti cheTsingshan nickel inobata margin uye zvinodiwa zvekugadzirisa.

Muchidimbu, Russia, semutengesi akakosha wezviwanikwa zve nickel, yakatemerwa chirango nekuda kwehondo yeRussia-Ukrainian, zvichikonzera kusakwanisa kweRussia nickel kuendeswa paLME, yakasimudzwa pazvinhu zvakawanda sekutadza kuzadza nickel zviwanikwa mu. Maodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia nenguva, Tsingshan Group's isina chinhu maodha ehedging inogona kusagoneka Yakanunurwa nenguva, iyo yakagadzira cheni kuita.

Pane zviratidzo zvakasiyana-siyana zvekuti ichi chinodaidzwa kuti "pfupi kusvina" chiitiko hachisati chapera, uye kutaurirana nemutambo pakati pevatori venguva refu uye vapfupi, LME, uye masangano emari achiri kuenderera.

Kutora izvi semukana, chinyorwa ichi chinoedza kupindura mibvunzo inotevera:

1. Sei nickel simbi ichiva iyo yakanangana nemutambo mukuru?

2. Kupihwa kwezviwanikwa zvenickel zvakakwana here?

3. Ko kuwedzera kwemutengo nickel kuchakanganisa musika mutsva wemotokari yemagetsi?

Nickel yebhatiri remagetsi inova danda idzva rekukura

Nekukurumidza kuvandudzwa kwemotokari nyowani dzesimba munyika, yakakwirisa maitiro eiyo nickel yakakwira uye yakaderera cobalt mumabhatiri e-ternary lithium, nickel yemabhatiri emagetsi iri kuita danda rekukura rekushandisa nickel.

Indasitiri inofanotaura kuti panosvika 2025, bhatiri repasi rose reternary bhatiri richaita 50%, iro repamusoro-nickel ternary mabhatiri achaita anopfuura 83%, uye chikamu che5-series ternary mabhatiri achadonha kusvika pazasi 17%.Kudiwa kwenickel kuchawedzerawo kubva pamatani makumi matanhatu nematanhatu muna 2020 kusvika 620,000 matani muna 620,000, neavhareji pagore kukura kwechikamu chemakumi mana nesere muzana mumakore mana anotevera.

Zvinoenderana nekufanotaura, kudiwa kwepasi rose kwenickel yemabhatiri emagetsi kuchawedzerawo kubva pasi pe7% parizvino kusvika pa26% muna 2030.

Semutungamiri wepasi rose mumotokari nyowani dzesimba, maitiro aTesla "nickel hoarding" anenge anopenga.Tesla CEO Musk akataurawo kakawanda kuti nickel mbishi zvinhu ndiyo hombe bhodhoro raTesla.

Gaogong Lithium yakaona kuti kubvira 2021, Tesla yakatevedzana yakabatana neFrench New Caledonia kambani yemugodhi Proni Resources, hofori yemugodhi weAustralia BHP Billiton, Brazil Vale, kambani yemugodhi yekuCanada Giga Metals, American mugodhi Talon Metals, nezvimwewo. Makambani akati wandei emigodhi akasaina. nhamba yezvibvumirano zvenguva refu zvekupa nickel inotarisa.

Pamusoro pezvo, makambani ari mumagetsi mabhatiri indasitiri cheni akadai seCATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, uye Tsingshan Group vari kuwedzerawo kutonga kwavo pamusoro pezviwanikwa zvenickel.

Izvi zvinoreva kuti kudzora nickel zviwanikwa zvakaenzana nekuziva tikiti retrillion-dollar track.

Glencore ndiye mutengesi mukuru wepasi rose wezvekutengesa uye mumwe wepasi rose anogadzira zvakare uye ma processor emidziyo ine nickel, ine portfolio yezvicherwa zvine chekuita ne nickel muCanada, Norway, Australia neNew Coledonia.assets.Muna 2021, mari yekambani nickel asset ichave US $ 2.816 bhiriyoni, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe20%.

Zvinoenderana nedatha yeLME, kubva muna Ndira 10, 2022, chikamu chemarisiti eremangwana remba yekuchengetera nickel inobatwa nemutengi mumwechete yakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pa30% kusvika 39%, uye kutanga kwaKurume, chikamu chemarisiti emudura chapfuura 90% .

Maererano nehukuru uhu, misika inofungidzira kuti mabhuru ari mumutambo uyu wenguva pfupi ndiye anogona kunge ari Glencore.

Kune rimwe divi, Tsingshan Group yakaputsa tekinoroji yekugadzirira ye "NPI (nickel pig iron from laterite nickel ore) - high nickel matte", iyo yakaderedza zvakanyanya mutengo uye inotarisirwa kutyora kukanganiswa kwenickel sulfate pane pure nickel. (ine nickel yemukati isingasviki 99.8 %, inozivikanwawo seprimary nickel).

Kune rimwe divi, 2022 richava gore iro chirongwa chitsva cheTsingshan Group muIndonesia chichaitwa.Tsingshan ine tarisiro yakasimba yekukura kune yayo pachayo yekugadzira iri kuvakwa.Muna Kurume 2021, Tsingshan yakasaina chibvumirano chepamusoro chenickel matte neHuayou Cobalt neZhongwei Co., Ltd. Tsingshan ichapa 60,000 matani ehigh nickel matte kuna Huayou Cobalt uye zviuru makumi mana zvematani kuZhongwei Co., Ltd. mukati megore rimwe kubva Gumiguru 21 kubva musi wa21 Gumiguru. High nickel matte.

Izvo zvinofanirwa kutaurwa kuti izvo LME zvinodikanwa zvekuunza nickel zvigadzirwa ndeye nickel yakachena, uye yakakwira matte nickel chigadzirwa chepakati chisingagone kushandiswa pakuunza.Qingshan pure nickel inonyanya kutengwa kubva kuRussia.Nickel yeRussia yakarambidzwa kutengesa nekuda kwehondo yeRussia-Ukrainian, ichisimudzira pasirese yakaderera nickel inventory, izvo zvakaisa Qingshan munjodzi ye "hapana zvinhu zvekugadzirisa".

Izvo chaizvo nekuda kweizvi kuti mutambo wakareba-mupfupi wesimbi nickel wave pedyo.

Global nickel reserves uye kupa

Sekureva kweUnited States Geological Survey (USGS), kusvika pakupera kwa2021, pasi rose nickel reserves (yakaratidza kuchengeterwa kwepasi-based deposits) ingangoita 95 miriyoni matani.

Pakati pavo, Indonesia neAustralia dzine matani anosvika mamiriyoni makumi maviri nerimwe zvichiteerana, achiverengera 22%, achiisa maviri epamusoro;Brazil inoita 17% yenickel reserves yematani mamiriyoni gumi nematanhatu, iri pachinhanho chechitatu;Russia nePhilippines vanotora 8% uye 5% zvichiteerana.%, pachinhanho chechina kana chechishanu.TOP5 nyika dzinoita 74% yepasi rose nickel zviwanikwa.

China ine nickel reserves ingangoita 2.8 miriyoni matani, inoverengera 3%.Semutengi mukuru wezviwanikwa zvenickel, China inotsamira zvakanyanya kubva kunze kwenyika kwenickel zviwanikwa, ine mwero wekunze unopfuura 80% kwemakore mazhinji.

Zvinoenderana nehunhu hweore, nickel ore inonyanya kukamurwa kuita nickel sulfide uye laterite nickel, ine reshiyo inosvika 6:4.Iyo yekare inonyanya kuwanikwa muAustralia, Russia nedzimwe nzvimbo, uye iyo yekupedzisira inonyanya kuwanikwa muIndonesia, Brazil, Philippines nedzimwe nzvimbo.

Zvinoenderana nemusika wekushandisa, iyo yakadzika kudiwa kwenickel inonyanya kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina tsvina, alloys uye mabhatiri emagetsi.Simbi isina tsvina inosvika 72%, alloys uye castings account inosvika 12%, uye nickel yemabhatiri ingangoita 7%.

Pakutanga, pakanga paine nzira mbiri dzakazvimiririra dzekugovera mucheni yekugovera nickel: "latterite nickel-nickel pig iron/nickel iron-stainless steel" uye "nickel sulfide-pure nickel-battery nickel".

Panguva imwecheteyo, musika wekupa uye unodiwa wenickel zvakare zvishoma nezvishoma wakatarisana nekusaenzana kwechimiro.Kune rumwe rutivi, nhamba huru ye nickel yenguruve iron mapurojekiti akabudiswa neRKEF maitiro akaiswa mukushanda, zvichiita kuti pave nekuwanda kwakawanda kwe nickel pig iron;kune rumwe rutivi, inotungamirirwa nekukurumidza kukura kwemotokari itsva simba, mabhatiri Kukura kwe nickel kwakakonzera kushayikwa kwechidimbu chenickel yakachena.

Data kubva kuWorld Bureau of Metal Statistics report inoratidza kuti pachava nekusara kwe84,000 matani enickel muna 2020. Kutanga muna 2021, pasi rose nickel inoda ichakwira zvakanyanya.Kutengeswa kwemotokari nyowani dzesimba kwakafambisa kukura kweiyo marginal kushandiswa kwenickel, uye kushomeka kwekupa mumusika wepasi rose nickel kuchasvika 144,300 matani muna 2021.

Nekudaro, nekubudirira kweyepakati chigadzirwa kugadzirisa tekinoroji, iyo yataurwa pamusoro apa mbiri mbiri nzira yekugovera nzira iri kuputswa.Kutanga, yakaderera-giredhi laterite ore inogona kuburitsa nickel sulfate kuburikidza nekunyorova kwepakati chigadzirwa cheHPAL process;chechipiri, yakakwira-giredhi laterite ore inogona kugadzira nickel yenguruve iron kuburikidza neRKEF pyrotechnic process, uye yobva yapfuura nemushanduri inovhuvhuta kuti ibudise yakakwira-giredhi nickel matte, iyo inozoburitsa nickel sulfate.Iyo inoona mukana wekuti laterite nickel ore application muindasitiri itsva yesimba.

Parizvino, mapurojekiti ekugadzira anoshandisa tekinoroji yeHPAL anosanganisira Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, nezvimwewo. Panguva imwecheteyo, chirongwa cheQingmeibang chakaiswa neCATL neGEM, Huayue nickel-cobalt chirongwa chakaiswa naHuayou Cobalt, uye Huafei nickel. -cobalt chirongwa chakadyarwa neYiwei ese ese HPAL mapurojekiti.

Mukuwedzera, iyo yakakwirira nickel matte purojekiti inotungamirirwa neTsingshan Group yakaiswa mukushanda, iyo yakazarurawo mukaha pakati pelateite nickel uye nickel sulfate, uye yakaziva kutendeuka kwenickel pig iron pakati pesimbi isina tsvina uye maindasitiri emagetsi matsva.

Maonero eindasitiri ndeokuti munguva pfupi, kuburitswa kwepamusoro nickel matte kugadzirwa kwesimba hakusati kwasvika pahukuru hwekurerutsa gap rekupa yenickel elements, uye kukura kwenickel sulfate supply kuchiri kunoenderana nekunyungudutsa nickel yekutanga senge. nickel beans/nickel powder.chengetedza maitiro akasimba.

Nekufamba kwenguva, kushandiswa kwenickel muminda yechinyakare yakadai sesimbi isina tsvina yakaramba ichikura, uye maitiro ekukura nekukurumidza mumunda we ternary simba mabhatiri ndeyechokwadi.Kukwanisa kwekugadzirwa kwe "nickel pig iron-high nickel matte" project yakasunungurwa, uye HPAL process project ichapinda munguva yekugadzirwa kwehuwandu muna 2023. Izvo zvose zvinodiwa zve nickel zviwanikwa zvichachengetedza kuenzanisa kwakasimba pakati pekupa uye kudiwa mu ramangwana.

Iko kukanganisa kwekukwira kwemutengo nickel pamusika mutsva wemotokari yemagetsi

Muchokwadi, nekuda kwekukwira kuri kuita nickel mutengo, Tesla's Model 3 yepamusoro-performance vhezheni uye Model Y yenguva refu yehupenyu, yepamusoro-yekuita shanduro inoshandisa yakakwirira-nickel mabhatiri akawedzera ne10,000 yuan.

Maererano neGWh yega yega yepamusoro-nickel ternary lithium bhatiri (kutora NCM 811 semuenzaniso), 750 simbi matani enickel anodiwa, uye imwe neimwe GWh yepakati uye yakaderera nickel (5 series, 6 series) ternary lithium mabhatiri inoda 500-600. matani esimbi nickel.Zvino mutengo weunickel unowedzera ne10,000 yuan patani yesimbi, zvinoreva kuti mutengo weternary lithium mabhatiri paGWh unowedzera nemamiriyoni mashanu yuan kusvika 7,5 miriyoni yuan.

Kufungidzira kwakashata ndeyekuti kana mutengo we nickel uri US $ 50,000 / toni, mutengo weTesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) uchawedzera ne10,500 yuan;uye apo nickel mutengo unokwira ku US $ 100,000 / ton, mutengo weTesla Model 3 uchawedzera.Kuwedzera kweanoda kusvika 28,000 yuan.

Kubva 2021, kutengesa kwepasirese kwemotokari nyowani dzesimba kwakawedzera, uye musika wekupinda wepamusoro-nickel simba mabhatiri akawedzera.

Kunyanya, mhando dzepamusoro-soro dzemotokari dzemagetsi dzemhiri kwemakungwa dzinonyanya kutora nzira yepamusoro-nickel tekinoroji, izvo zvakakonzera kuwedzera kukuru kwekuiswa kwemabhatiri epamusoro-nickel pamusika wepasirese, kusanganisira CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI nemamwe makambani anotungamira mabhatiri muChina, Japan neSouth Korea.

Nezvekukanganisa, kune rumwe rutivi, ikozvino kushandurwa kwenickel pig iron kusvika kune yakakwirira matte nickel yakatungamirira kusunungurwa zvishoma nezvishoma kwehuwandu hwekugadzira purojekiti nekuda kwehupfumi husina kukwana.Mitengo yenickel iri kuramba ichikwira, izvo zvinosimudzira kugona kwekugadzira mapurojekiti eIndonesia epamusoro nickel matte kuti akurumidze kubuda.

Kune rimwe divi, nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu, mota nyowani dzesimba dzakatanga kukwidza mitengo pamwe chete.Indasitiri iyi inowanzo shushikana kuti kana mutengo wezvinhu zve nickel ukaramba uchivirisa, kugadzirwa uye kutengeswa kwemhando dzepamusoro-nickel dzemotokari dzemagetsi matsva zvinogona kuwedzera kana kushomeka gore rino.


Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-12-2022